This is my final forecast for the total snowfall for the upcoming winter storm headed for our area. Storm looks to be tracking further south than first anticipated. The higher amounts I forecasted before were due to most of the models showing a more northerly track. Now it seems that convection from the storms in the south is essentially sapping the moisture from the northern portions of the storm. This is also pulling the low pressure system further south. There is still a VERY fine gradient separating just a dusting to having >6″ with a sharp cutoff of little to no snow. There will still be impacts on travel tomorrow in South West PA. Especially south of I-70. If the storm shifts only slightly, it will increase or decrease the totals. I will be sticking with a good 3-5″ for most of Allegheny County and 5-7″ as you get closer to the I-70 corridor. But also if the storm shifts slightly north, we can see 5-7″ in most of Allegheny. The red dashed line denotes the areas likely to have a significant shift if the storm track changes. If anything major changes I will be sure to let everyone know!
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